瑞银：全球石油和炼油市场展望

Investment Rating - The report provides a bullish outlook on the oil market, indicating a modestly bullish positioning on oil [17]. Core Insights - The global oil market is expected to experience a surplus in 2025 and 2026, with quarterly global oil supply and demand balances projected [25]. - Global oil demand is anticipated to grow by 0.7 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2026, with total demand reaching approximately 106.2 Mb/d by 2030 [34][37]. - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $65.99 per barrel in 2025, with a gradual increase to $75.00 by 2028 [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecast - The UBS forecast for Brent crude oil prices is $74.97 in 1Q25, declining to $62.00 in 3Q25 and 4Q25, before recovering to $65.99 in 2025 [3]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil supply is projected to grow by 1.4 Mb/d in 2025 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2026, with significant contributions from non-OPEC+ countries [50][53]. - The total global oil demand is expected to reach 103.9 Mb/d in 2025, with the US contributing 20.5 Mb/d [129]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Persian Gulf, on oil supply and pricing, with a risk premium expected to remain elevated due to potential disruptions [11][5]. OPEC+ Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to gradually unwind production cuts, with a cumulative increase of 2.2 Mb/d planned, affecting global supply dynamics [64][66]. Inventory Trends - Global observed oil inventories rose by 25 million barrels in March, indicating a build-up in supply [104]. Capex and Project Developments - Global upstream capital expenditure is expected to increase by 2% in 2025, reflecting ongoing investments in oil and gas projects [121]. Regional Demand Insights - The report notes that US gasoline demand is projected to align with 2024 levels in 2Q25, indicating stable consumption patterns [43]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term oil price forecast suggests a gradual increase in prices, with a breakeven price for various regions and types of oil production outlined [124].