广发期货日评-20250627

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - Buy: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - Sell: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - Hold/Observe: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - Financial Markets: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - Industrial Commodities: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - Energy and Chemicals: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - Agricultural Products: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - Special Commodities: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - Stock Index Futures: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - Treasury Bonds: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - Precious Metals: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - Steel: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - Iron Ore: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - Crude Oil: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - PTA and Related Products: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - Live Pigs: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - Sugar: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - Glass: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - Rubber: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]