工业硅多晶硅市场周报：光伏治沙拉高需求，双硅乐观情绪蔓延-20250627

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 8.66%, and polysilicon by 5.95%, due to the positive news of photovoltaic desert control [7]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain loose. The southwest region's electricity price is decreasing, and there are plans for large - scale enterprises to resume production. The northwest region also offers electricity subsidies [7]. - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is slowing down. Organic silicon production is being cut due to zero profit, polysilicon production is reduced, and the aluminum alloy industry is in a passive de - stocking phase [7]. - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. However, the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan has improved market sentiment [7]. - Next week, industrial silicon is expected to experience basis regression, and the increase in futures prices may be limited. Polysilicon's basis is expected to return to the normal range [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon oscillates in the range of 32000 - 34500, with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 36000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices increased this week. After the news of photovoltaic desert control on Thursday, the market began to reflect the expectation of increased demand, and prices rose significantly [7]. - Market Outlook: - Industrial Silicon: Supply will be loose, while demand from downstream industries is weakening. The overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to slow down [7]. - Polysilicon: Supply is in a state of reduced load operation, and demand is weak. However, the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan has improved market sentiment. Inventory is at a high level [7]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly in range - bound oscillation (7600 - 8600), with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should be in short - term oscillation (32000 - 34500), with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 36000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon both decreased [8]. - The price of industrial silicon increased, the spot price rose, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the basis will return next week [13]. - The futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis weakened, the spot price rose, and the basis returned to normal [17]. - This week, the production and capacity utilization rate of industrial silicon increased due to the rainy season in the southwest region and the resumption plans of large enterprises. As of June 27, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 73,500 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 50.61% [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Cost: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon slightly decreased, the electricity price dropped, and the overall cost decreased due to government subsidies. Although enterprises are still in a loss state, the willingness to resume production during the rainy season has increased [27]. - Inventory: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory slightly increased. The process of inventory reduction has been repeated, but the overall trend remains unchanged. As of June 27, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 53,234 lots, a decrease of 2386 lots; the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 571,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons [32][36]. - Downstream Industry: - Organic Silicon: The production and capacity utilization rate decreased. Enterprises chose to continue reducing production to support prices due to profit decline. As of June 27, 2025, the weekly production was 44,200 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.17%, a decrease of 1.23% [38][42]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price decreased, the inventory increased, and the passive de - stocking continued. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. As of June 27, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [50][52]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Chip: The silicon wafer price decreased, and the battery chip price remained flat. The overall demand for polysilicon was affected, which in turn affected the demand for industrial silicon. As of June 27, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.06 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/piece; the battery chip price was 0.25 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week [57][59]. - Polysilicon Production Cost: This week, the cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) for polysilicon remained flat, and the price of industrial silicon decreased. Overall, the production cost remained stable, and the polysilicon production is expected to gradually decline. In May 2025, the total production of polysilicon plants in China was 97,355 tons, a decrease of 1447 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [64][66].