棉花（纱）市场周报：天气引发新作忧虑，提振短期价格反弹-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract both rose, with weekly increases of about 1.96% and 1.87% respectively [6][18]. - Internationally, the decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton and the spill - over of crude oil price fluctuations boosted the US cotton market, but weak weekly export sales data dragged down the increase. The market is waiting for the USDA quarterly inventory report and planting area report [6]. - Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season. Enterprises' new orders are poor, the overall operating rate is slowly decreasing, and some spinning enterprises are in a state of inventory accumulation. The old - crop fundamentals lack driving force. However, the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang has led to concerns about production, driving a short - term rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and cotton yarn futures 2509 rose this week [6]. - Market Outlook: Internationally, the US cotton market has mixed factors. Domestically, the textile off - season affects demand, while weather concerns drive a short - term rebound [6]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the US cotton December contract rose by about 3.19% this week. As of June 17, 2025, non - commercial long and short positions changed, and the net position increased by 0.50% [9]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: As of June 12, 2025, the weekly export volume of US upland cotton decreased by 13.36% month - on - month, and the cumulative export volume increased by 2.14%. As of June 24, the international cotton spot price index rose by 1.1% [14]. - Futures Market: Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and cotton yarn futures 2509 rose. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 36385, and that of cotton yarn futures were - 113. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10302, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 [18][25][32]. - Spot Market: As of June 27, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15109 yuan/ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20380 yuan/ton [39][46]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of June 25, 2025, the imported cotton price index and imported cotton yarn price index all rose slightly [52]. - Imported Cotton Cost - Profit: As of June 26, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 497 yuan/ton, and that with 1% quota was 1253 yuan/ton [54]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side: In May 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year, and the national cotton commercial inventory decreased month - on - month [59][63]. - Mid - end Industry: As of the end of May, textile enterprises' yarn and grey fabric inventories increased [67]. - Terminal Consumption: From January to May 2025, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles increased by 3.3% year - on - year [71][73]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented, but no specific data is given [75]. - Stock Market: The report mentions the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa, but no specific analysis is provided [79][81].