Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead futures was active, with a weekly increase of 1.66%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors fermented, the price showed signs of decline on Friday, and remained under the annual - line pressure. If it fails to break through the annual line next week, it is expected to fall back to the shock range [5]. - On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The loss pressure of secondary lead decreased slightly, and the price of waste batteries remained flat this week. As the second quarter enters the traditional off - season, the replacement demand for batteries decreases, and it is difficult to increase the production of secondary lead in the future. The overall supply increase of secondary lead is limited. Under this situation, secondary lead smelters are forced to continue to lower the operating rate due to losses and raw material constraints. On the demand side, the overall market trading is light, and the support for lead prices is relatively limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles shows signs of a slowdown in growth. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again; domestic inventory decreased slightly, while the warehouse receipts increased, mainly due to the obvious price difference between the domestic and overseas markets, resulting in an arbitrage opportunity. From the perspective of lead concentrate processing, the processing fee started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the subsequent production of secondary and primary lead. In general, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead will continue to be under pressure due to the weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies for consumption, domestic inventory will increase slightly, while overseas inventory will accumulate again, and the lead price will be significantly under pressure. The overall overseas economic situation begins to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to show an overall shock trend next week [5]. - It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate mainly in the range of 16700 - 17500, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17700. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly this week. The main contract 2508 was active, with a 1.66% increase. The market trading was active, and the position transfer was completed this week. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors fermented, the price showed signs of decline on Friday, and remained under the annual - line pressure [5]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased, while the supply increase of secondary lead was limited, and the operating rate of secondary lead smelters continued to decline. On the demand side, the market trading was light, and the support for lead prices was limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles showed signs of a slowdown in growth. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again, domestic inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts increased due to the arbitrage opportunity. The lead concentrate processing fee started to decline, which will have a negative impact on production. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price will be under pressure due to weakening demand. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to show an overall shock trend next week [5]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead should fluctuate mainly in the range of 16700 - 17500, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17700. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead decreased compared with last week, and the overseas futures price also decreased, resulting in a lower ratio. As of June 27, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $2032.5 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was 17125 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.43 [7][11]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic futures premium strengthened, while the overseas premium weakened. As of June 27, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was - 190 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $21.4 per ton [13][15]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Overseas lead inventory decreased, domestic inventory decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. Currently, due to the difference in processing fees between the domestic and overseas markets, the overseas profit is higher, so there is an opportunity to export after domestic processing to obtain profits. As of June 20, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 50300 tons, a decrease of 900 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 273250 tons, a decrease of 10825 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 45278 tons, an increase of 1517 tons [29][33]. 3. Industrial Situation Supply Side - Primary Lead: The operating rate and output of primary lead enterprises increased because the rising price of Shanghai lead led to good profits. As of June 20, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 73.83%, an increase of 4% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35700 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with last week [19][21]. - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate and output of secondary lead enterprises continued to decline. The main reason was the reduction in waste lead recycling. Currently, it is the off - season, and the number of scrapped waste batteries is small, resulting in passive production cuts. As of June 20, 2025, the output of secondary lead in major domestic producing areas was 16800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 36.3%, a decrease of 1.27% compared with the previous period [25][28]. - Number of Secondary Lead Enterprises: The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of May 31, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [35][37]. - Lead Trade: The export of refined lead was obvious, and the import of refined lead increased significantly. The overseas lead ingot price was higher than the domestic price, and the domestic processing fee was low, resulting in an arbitrage opportunity. In May, the export volume of refined lead was 5555 tons, a 64.9% increase compared with April and a 118.41% increase year - on - year; the total import volume of Chinese lead ingots (crude lead + refined lead) was 11830 tons, a 5.16% increase compared with the previous month and a 103.51% increase year - on - year. The import volume of refined lead was 4410.959 tons, a 6.82% decrease compared with the previous month but a 3058.56% increase year - on - year. The import volume of crude lead was 7420 tons, a 13.80% increase compared with the previous month and a 31.16% increase year - on - year [39][41]. Demand Side - Lead Concentrate Processing Fee: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat overall, and the import processing fee also remained unchanged. The low processing fee led to an arbitrage opportunity, and the market began to import lead for processing and then re - export. As of June 20, 2025, the average national processing price of lead concentrate was 640 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $40 per thousand tons [43][45]. - Automobile Production and Sales: Automobile production and sales showed a marginal decreasing trend. In May 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, a 1.1% increase compared with the previous month and an 11.6% increase year - on - year; the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles, a 3.7% increase compared with the previous month and an 11.2% increase year - on - year. The production and sales of passenger cars increased, while those of commercial vehicles decreased. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the export volume also increased [47][49]. - Battery and Charging Piles: The price of batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4082800. As of June 20, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set [51][56].
沪铅市场周报：海内外套利存空间，沪铅年线关口压制-20250627
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-27 09:24