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集运指数(欧线)期货周报-20250627
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-27 09:33

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2508 dropped 8.23%, and the far - month contracts fell between 3 - 6%. The cease - fire confirmed by Iran reduced the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and the negative impact of tariffs remained unimproved, weakening the support for futures prices. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1937.14, up 239.51 points from last week, a 14.1% month - on - month increase. The US Q1 GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised down to - 0.5%, and the economic momentum continued to decline. The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was still under pressure. In the long - term, the euro may continue to weaken. The container capacity of leading shipping companies maintained a high - growth trend, and the global capacity supply continued to rise. With the demand not significantly improved, over - capacity remained a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of the shipping boom in 2025. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. The long - term improvement of the trade war needs further observation, and investors are advised to be cautious [6][7][36][37]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Market Review - Futures contract prices: EC2506 fell 0.27% (- 5.10), EC2508 fell 8.23% (- 161.90), EC2510 fell 4.17% (- 57.70), EC2512 fell 4.41% (- 69.00), EC2602 fell 6.22% (- 87.30), EC2604 fell 3.56% (- 43.20). The SCFIS index rose 14.1% (239.51) to 1937.14 [10]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased this week, and the trading volume and open interest of the EC2508 contract both declined [12][14]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Various news and their impacts: China's stance on economic globalization is neutral; the US - Iran nuclear negotiation news is bullish; Morgan Stanley's Fed rate - cut prediction is neutral; EU's consideration of tariff reduction on US imports is neutral; Trump's statements about India and the defense budget are neutral [19]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts declined, and the spread converged. The export container freight rate index fluctuated. Container capacity continued to rise. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships increased slightly. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated [22][23][27][30]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the decline of futures prices, the impact of cease - fire and tariffs, the economic situation in the US and the eurozone, the supply - demand situation of shipping capacity, and suggestions for investors [36][37].