瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250627

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures rebounded due to basis regression trading and a decline in production, while the glass price rose from the bottom due to favorable domestic financial policies, with most energy prices rising, driving up costs and demand [7]. - For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, but the demand is contracting, and the price will continue to face pressure. The basis regression trading may continue, and the focus next week is on the increase in spot prices. For glass, the supply and demand are both weak, and the subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations, with limited rebound height and strength [7]. - It is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1150 - 1220, with a stop - loss in the range of 1130 - 1240. For the FG2509 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 970 - 1070, with a stop - loss in the range of 930 - 1090 [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, soda ash futures rose 1.96%, and glass futures rose 1.19%. The soda ash futures rebound was due to basis regression and production decline, while the glass price was boosted by policies and cost increases [7]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, the production growth rate will slow down, cold repairs may increase, and demand from glass shows a negative feedback, with inventory expected to continue to accumulate. For glass, the supply remains at a low level, and the demand is expected to weaken further, with limited rebound [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: SA2509 contract trading range is 1150 - 1220, stop - loss 1130 - 1240; FG2509 contract trading range is 970 - 1070, stop - loss 930 - 1090 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Soda ash futures prices rose this week, while glass futures prices fell [9]. - Spot Prices and Basis: Soda ash spot prices fell, and the basis continued to flatten, with strengthening basis regression and the potential for futures to stabilize. Glass spot prices rose less than futures, and the basis weakened. As of June 27, 2025, the soda ash spot price in the Shahe market was 1210 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 24 yuan/ton. The glass spot price in the Shahe market was 1056 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, and the basis was 37 yuan/ton [13][17][20]. - Price Spread: The soda ash - glass price spread continued to weaken this week and is expected to continue next week. As of June 27, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 177 yuan/ton [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production declined this week. As of June 27, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.65%, down 0.7% month - on - month, and the weekly production was 71.68 tons, down 4.8% month - on - month [24][27]. - Corporate Profits: Both soda ash and glass corporate profits declined this week. The cost of soda ash increased due to rising energy prices. As of June 27, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was 25 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1690 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 7 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1345 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. For glass, the weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels showed different changes [29][33]. - Glass Production: One more glass production line was cold - repaired this week, and the overall production remained at a low level with obvious signs of rigid - demand production. As of June 27, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 222 in operation, and 74 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 109.09 tons, down 0.24% month - on - month, and is expected to remain low next week [35][37]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The operating rate of domestic photovoltaic glass remained flat this week, but the capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume declined. As of June 27, 2025, the operating rate was 69.66%, with no month - on - month change; the capacity utilization rate was 73.79%, down 1.31% month - on - month; and the daily melting volume was 95,600 tons/day, down 1,700 tons/day month - on - month, all expected to continue to decline next week [39][41]. - Corporate Inventory: Soda ash corporate inventory increased due to insufficient demand, while glass corporate inventory declined but the de - stocking was slow. As of June 27, 2025, the soda ash corporate inventory was 176.69 tons, up 1.1 tons month - on - month, and the glass corporate inventory was 69.216 million weight boxes, down 697,000 weight boxes month - on - month, with increasing de - stocking difficulty expected [43][45]. - Downstream Orders: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders declined slightly and were at a historical low. With the arrival of summer heat, demand is expected to recover. As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.83 days [47][49].