铁矿石市场周报：铁水产量回升，铁矿期价先抑后扬-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore I2509 contract is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. Consider trading with a bullish view on the I2509 contract, paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control. The third - batch consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July, stimulating consumption. Although the iron ore shipment, arrival, and port inventory have increased, the hot metal production remains at a high level, and the strong rebound of coking coal and coke drives the black - series commodities to be bullish [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of June 27, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 716.5 (+13.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 754 (+1) yuan/dry ton. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 154 tons this period. From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.5067 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 154,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3.0609 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 218,800 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports increased by 255,400 tons. From June 16 - 22, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.7729 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 255,400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.5627 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 178,200 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.1535 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons. The hot metal production increased by 110 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,850 tons. The port inventory increased by 102,830 tons. As of June 27, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.48023 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,670 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.84747 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,770 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.31%, unchanged from last week and 16.45 percentage points higher than last year [7][6]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, Iran accepts Qatar's mediation and the US - proposed cease - fire plan with Israel, and the US will hold talks with Iran on a potential nuclear deal next week. Fed Chairman Powell said that due to the impact of tariffs, US inflation is expected to rise, and interest rate changes will depend on the economic trend. Domestically, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations on June 25, achieving an excess roll - over compared with the 182 billion yuan maturity amount in the same month, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan, which is the central bank's fourth consecutive month of increased operations. The National Development and Reform Commission said that the third - batch consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. Supply - demand aspect: The shipment and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic port inventory increased slightly. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and hot metal production of steel mills increased, and the support for iron ore demand still exists. Technical aspect: The iron ore I2509 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias, the daily K - line broke through the pressure of multiple moving averages upwards; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards, and the red bars were expanding [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The futures price fluctuated with a bullish bias this week. The I2509 contract was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 27th, the price difference was 27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The iron ore warehouse receipts remained unchanged this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On June 27, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 0 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 49,583 lots, an increase of 10,694 lots compared with last week. The spot price increased this week. On June 27, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 754 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 27th, the basis was 38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [15][21][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China increased. From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.5067 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 154,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3.0609 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 218,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.7729 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 255,400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.5627 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 178,200 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.1535 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons. The iron ore port inventory increased. This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.48023 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,670 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 338,940 tons, an increase of 11,480 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 6.18808 billion tons, an increase of 87,640 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 5.2978 billion tons, a decrease of 20,990 tons; the trading ore inventory was 9.33115 billion tons, a decrease of 70,300 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of steel mills decreased. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 8.84747 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,770 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore of the current sample steel mills was 301,250 tons, a week - on - week increase of 250 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.37 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32 days. The available days of iron ore inventory of the sample steel mills remained unchanged. As of June 26, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory of domestic large and medium - sized steel mills was 19 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On June 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,553, a week - on - week decrease of 112. The iron ore import volume decreased, and the mine capacity utilization rate increased. In May, China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 5.007 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%; from January to May, the cumulative import was 486.409 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 65.49%, a week - on - week increase of 4.17%; the daily average fine powder output was 413,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 263,000 tons; the inventory was 53,260 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,170 tons. The domestic iron ore fine powder output increased. In May 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 85.787 million tons; from January to May, the cumulative output of domestic iron ore raw ore was 414.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. In May, the iron fine powder output of 433 iron mine enterprises was 24.066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.051 million tons, an increase of 4.6%; from January to May, the cumulative output was 114.449 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.645 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% [31][34][37][40][43]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - In terms of demand, from January to May, the crude steel output decreased year - on - year. In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In May, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel export was 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%; from January to May, the cumulative steel import was 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained unchanged, and the hot metal production increased. On June 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged from last week and 0.71 percentage points higher than last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points and 1.70 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,850 tons [47][50]. 3.5 Options Market - The iron ore port inventory increases, the hot metal production remains at a high level, and the strong rebound of coking coal and coke supports the ore price. However, the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may further increase, which may drag down the iron ore futures price. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [53].