苹果市场周报：多空因素交织，苹果宽幅震荡-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - New - season apple production in Shaanxi is expected to decrease by 5% - 10% compared to last year. As of June 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 106.91 million tons, with a slowdown in the shipping speed. Summer fruits' large - scale listing and increased substitution lead to weak apple demand. After bagging, farmers' willingness to sell increases, pressuring apple prices. However, the current low inventory provides strong price support. The apple price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and continued attention should be given to production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - long Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the price of apple futures 2510 fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.44% [5][9]. - Market Outlook: Shaanxi's apple production is expected to decrease by 5% - 10%. As of June 25, the national cold - storage inventory was 106.91 million tons, with a slowdown in shipping speed. Summer fruits increase substitution, and farmers' selling intention rises after bagging, but the low inventory supports prices. The apple price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Treat the apple 2510 contract as a fluctuating market [5]. - Future Transaction Tips: Monitor the de - stocking rate, consumption, and new crop production [6]. 3.2. Futures Market - The price of apple futures 2510 fluctuated this week, with a weekly decline of 0.44%. As of the end of the week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 5,216 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [9][15]. 3.3. Spot Market - As of June 27, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 4.1 yuan per catty, and the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.7 yuan per catty [18]. 3.4. Industry Chain - Supply Side: As of June 25, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 106.91 million tons, a decrease of 9.58 million tons from last week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased by 0.84% and 0.91% respectively, and the shipping speed was slow [5][26]. - Demand Side - As of June 27, the average daily early - morning vehicle arrival volume at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased, and the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan per catty [30]. - As of June 20, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.56 yuan per kilogram, a 1.27% increase; the average wholesale price of all apples was 9.63 yuan per kilogram, a 0.42% increase [34]. - As of June 20, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.66 yuan per kilogram, a 0.91% decrease [38]. - In May 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 39,369.54 tons, a 26.36% month - on - month decrease from April and a 9.22% year - on - year decrease from May 2022 [42]. 3.5. Option Market - The report shows a graph of the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week, but no specific data is provided [43]. 3.6. Futures - Stock Correlation - The report shows a graph of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, but no specific data is provided [46]