广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 yuan/ton and monitor raw material conditions in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [1]. Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures price rises supported by demand recovery and production cuts. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals have not improved. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and hedging arbitrage pressure [4]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction in the polysilicon market lies in the mismatch between weak demand and high supply, leading to a strong expectation of price decline. If production cuts are implemented, prices may stabilize and rebound. Monitor production changes [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The short - term impact of a plant disruption is expected to be limited. In the long - run, the supply is in excess, and there will be a process of further profit reduction. Maintain a short - selling strategy on rebounds [6]. - Glass: In the summer rainy season, the glass industry faces over - supply pressure. Wait for more cold - repair to occur for a real market reversal. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate and is recommended to be observed [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,850 yuan/ton, with a 0.73% increase [1]. - The whole - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 170 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, a - 850.00% change [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 845 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a - 20.00% change [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 43.5 thousand tons to 105.7 thousand tons, a - 29.16% change [1]. - In April, Indonesia's production decreased by 15.2 thousand tons to 194.1 thousand tons, a - 7.26% change [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory increased by 1410 tons to 606,975 tons, a 0.23% increase [1]. - The natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased by 2620 tons to 32,256 tons, a - 7.51% change [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase [4]. - The basis of SI5530 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 645 yuan/ton, a - 3.01% change [4]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, a - 57.14% change [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 0.69 million tons to 30.77 million tons, a 2.29% increase [4]. - In May, Xinjiang's industrial silicon production decreased by 0.44 million tons to 16.31 million tons, a - 2.60% change [4]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons to 17.29 million tons, a - 1.65% change [4]. - The social inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons to 54.2 million tons, a - 3.04% change [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 34,500 yuan/ton [5]. - The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 1090 yuan/ton to 2785 yuan/ton, a - 28.13% change [5]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The PS2506 contract increased by 1090 yuan/ton to 31,715 yuan/ton, a 3.56% increase [5]. - The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton, a - 26.32% change [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.09 million tons to 2.36 million tons, a - 3.67% change [5]. - In May, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.21 million tons to 0.08 million tons, a - 72.71% change [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 27 million tons, a 3.05% increase [5]. - The silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.37 GW to 20.11 GW, a 7.31% increase [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quote remained unchanged at 1140 yuan/ton [6]. - The glass 2505 contract increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1113 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quote remained unchanged at 1350 yuan/ton [6]. - The soda ash 2509 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a 1.17% increase [6]. Supply - The soda ash production rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.90% [6]. - The soda ash weekly production increased by 5.51 million tons to 74.01 million tons, an 8.04% increase [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 192,300 heavy - boxes to 6,968,500 heavy - boxes, a 2.84% increase [6]. - The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 6.2 million tons to 168.63 million tons, a 3.82% increase [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The log 2507 contract increased by 7 yuan/cubic meter to 818 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.86% increase [8]. - The log 2509 contract decreased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to 793.5 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.44% change [8]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.008 to 7.160, a 0% change [8]. - The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.8 yuan/cubic meter to 775.13 yuan/cubic meter, a 0% change [8]. Supply - The port shipping volume increased by 22.8 million cubic meters to 195.5 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase [8]. Inventory - The national log inventory decreased by 10 million cubic meters to 335 million cubic meters, a - 2.90% change [8]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume increased by 0.38 million cubic meters to 6.36 million cubic meters [8].