《黑色》日报-20250627

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Steel - Steel is in the off - season, with expectations of further demand decline. It maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. - Short - term, the marginal decline in coking coal supply drives price rebound. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation boosts metals, and hot - rolled coils and rebar may rebound, but there are still pressure levels at 3150 for hot - rolled coils and 3050 for rebar. Suggest rebound - shorting operations or selling out - of - the - money call options [1]. Iron Ore - Short - term, iron ore may run steadily and strongly, but the medium - to - long - term view for the 09 contract remains bearish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 690 - 740 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the spot fundamentals are still relatively loose. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. - For coking coal, the spot fundamentals have improved. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and also consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3060, 3160, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively; 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 2978, 2973, and 2978 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3180, 3100, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively; 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3097, 3103, and 3101 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Billet price is 2880 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China are 90, 200, and 160 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan; profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China are 200, 120, and 180 yuan/ton respectively, with South China down 10 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average hot - metal output is 242.1 tons, down 0.1 tons. - Outputs of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are 881.0, 217.8, and 327.2 tons respectively, increasing by 1.4%, 2.7%, and 0.6% [1]. Inventory - Inventories of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are 1340.0, 549.0, and 341.2 tons respectively, with rebar down 0.4% and the other two showing small increases [1]. Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 6.2%. - Apparent demands of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are 879.9, 219.9, and 326.3 tons respectively, with five - major products and hot - rolled coils down and rebar up slightly [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - Spot prices of various iron ore types at Rizhao Port remained unchanged. - The 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 57.4%, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads remained unchanged [4]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 7.5% to 2562.7 tons; global weekly shipments increased by 4.6% to 3506.7 tons; monthly national imports decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 tons [4]. Demand - Weekly average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons; weekly average 45 - port dredging volume increased by 4.1% to 313.6 tons; monthly national pig - iron and crude - steel outputs increased by 2.1% and 0.6% respectively [4]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory increased by 0.5% to 13968.02 tons; 247 steel mills' imported - ore inventory increased by 1.6% to 8936.2 tons; 64 steel mills' inventory - available days remained at 19 days [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke: Futures prices of 09 and 01 contracts increased, while spot prices were stable. The fourth round of price cuts in coke landed on June 23. - Coking coal: Futures prices of 09 and 01 contracts increased, and spot prices were stable and slightly strong [7]. Supply - Coke production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly. - Coking coal: Domestic production decreased, with some regions affected by environmental protection and accidents. Mongolian coal prices rebounded slightly, and seaborne coal imports had profit inversion [7]. Demand - Coke: 6 - month hot - metal output remained above 2.4 million tons per day, with blast - furnace start - up slightly decreasing. - Coking coal: Coking start - up began to decline, and hot - metal output showed a downward trend after peaking [7]. Inventory - Coke: Total inventory decreased, with inventories in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. - Coking coal: Coal - mine inventory decreased, and downstream replenishment led to some inventory increases. Overall inventory was at a medium level [7].