中金：全球研究2025下半年展望： 贸易冲击与经济格局重塑下的全球投资

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the consumer and manufacturing sectors, while expressing optimism for technology and financial sectors [4]. Core Insights - The global economy is expected to show a convergence in economic momentum between the US and non-US regions, driven by a slowdown in the US economy [2]. - The report highlights that while the overall performance in Q1 2025 was strong, future concerns include tariff impacts, growth slowdowns, and high funding costs affecting corporate profitability [2]. - Emerging markets are seen as having marginally favorable conditions due to a weaker dollar, looser monetary policies, and relatively low valuations, although high-interest environments may constrain absolute performance [3]. Regional Outlook - The report is optimistic about opportunities in non-US regions, particularly Europe, while suggesting a balanced allocation strategy due to expected regional performance differentiation being less pronounced than in the first half of the year [3]. - In Europe, recent policy shifts are expected to support internal risk appetite recovery, despite trade uncertainties [3]. - Japan's market outlook is cautious due to weak local policies and economic growth, although structural opportunities remain as the country emerges from deflation [3]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a preference for technology sectors (communication, software, advertising) and industrial sectors (power equipment, automation) for the second half of 2025, while maintaining caution towards consumer sectors and commodities [4]. - The technology sector, excluding electronics, and financial sectors are expected to outperform, while consumer and upstream materials are relatively weaker [4]. - The report notes that companies in the consumer, financial, and localized services sectors are less affected by tariffs, while manufacturing and bulk materials face significant impacts [4].