摩根士丹利：可持续发展中的防御性_绘制人工智能的角色

Investment Rating - The report identifies several European defence stocks as "Overweight" (OW) rated, including Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo, Rheinmetall, and Thales, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the context of AI integration in defence [6][32][105]. Core Insights - The European Defence sector is increasingly intersecting with themes of sustainability and national security, leading to a narrative shift that may ease weapon exclusions in sustainability funds [2][27]. - NATO's AI military spending is projected to reach approximately $112 billion by 2030 under the base case scenario, with a potential sixfold increase to $306 billion in a bullish scenario [6][30]. - The report evaluates nine key AI applications that are reshaping the defence sector, with cybersecurity and unmanned systems identified as the most advanced areas [6][74]. Summary by Sections Investment Landscape - The European Commission has announced a rearmament plan with AI at its core, aiming to scale up defence spending in response to geopolitical tensions [28][64]. - The report highlights a lack of consensus among sustainability-focused asset managers regarding what constitutes acceptable investments in the defence sector, particularly concerning controversial weapons [27][42]. AI Integration in Defence - The Application Readiness Radar evaluates nine AI applications, indicating that cybersecurity and unmanned systems are leading in terms of corporate readiness and investment [6][74]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ethical considerations in AI military applications, advocating for effective risk management frameworks and corporate engagement [6][37][74]. Corporate Readiness - The report assesses AI technology readiness among European Aerospace and Defence companies across six verticals, identifying Airbus as the most prepared company with readiness across all assessed areas [32][105]. - Companies such as Rolls-Royce, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall also demonstrate strong AI capabilities, offering an attractive bull-bear skew for investors [6][105]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in venture capital funding for defence-related AI technologies, with European startups attracting $653 million in 2024, doubling year-on-year [66]. - The integration of AI in defence is seen as critical for enhancing operational efficiency and addressing emerging threats, with a focus on dual-use technologies that serve both military and civilian purposes [104][105].