摩根大通：国资委要求央企开发商避免违约

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the property sector, including China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Jinmao [14][17]. Core Insights - The speculation that SASAC may require SOE developers to avoid defaulting on publicly issued debt is noted, with the understanding that SOEs have historically not defaulted [1][3]. - The report highlights that while the market currently has confidence in SOEs' ability to repay public debt, the introduction of this requirement could encourage SOEs to control leverage and slow down aggressive land-banking activities [3][4]. - The potential impact of the new directive could lead to a reduction in land acquisitions, which may help in destocking inventory from a macro perspective [4]. Summary by Sections Section: SOE Developer Performance - The report discusses the balance sheet ranking of 100 developers, indicating that some SOEs have weak credit metrics despite the overall confidence in their repayment abilities [1][6]. - A table lists central government-controlled SOEs, emphasizing the importance of accountability for performance metrics [8]. Section: Land Acquisition Metrics - The report provides data on land acquisition as a percentage of contracted sales, showing that many SOEs have exceeded the typical ratio of 40% in recent months [3][10]. - Specific developers, such as China Jinmao and Poly Property, are highlighted for their high land acquisition percentages, indicating aggressive strategies in the current market [10]. Section: Investment Recommendations - Top picks for investment include CR Land, CR Mixc, and COLI based on fundamental analysis, while potential turnaround stories like Longfor and Jinmao are noted for tactical buying opportunities [4][14]. - The report emphasizes the risk-reward balance in the current market environment, suggesting that policy support may favor these companies due to softening property data [4].