Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: June 30, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - L利多因素: Nickel ore prices are firm, with some products reducing production to address cost inversion, providing cost support. Domestic nickel ore port inventories are decreasing, and raw materials are in a tight supply situation [3]. - 利空因素: There is an overall surplus of nickel elements, and supply pressure persists. Downstream demand is weak, and steel mills are reducing production due to production losses [3]. - 交易咨询观点: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, prices are under pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 盘面信息 - 镍期货价格: The latest values of Shanghai Nickel Main Contract, Shanghai Nickel Continuous One, Shanghai Nickel Continuous Two, and Shanghai Nickel Continuous Three are 120,480 yuan/ton, 120,480 yuan/ton, 120,550 yuan/ton, and 120,700 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 3,030 yuan/ton, 2,940 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, and 2,710 yuan/ton, and weekly growth rates of 2.58%, 2.50%, 2.35%, and 2.35% respectively. The LME Nickel 3M is at 15,150 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 90 US dollars/ton and a weekly growth rate of 2.30% [4]. - 持仓量和成交量: The latest position volume is 78,738 lots, an increase of 26,731 lots or 51.4% from the previous week. The trading volume is 94,188 lots, a decrease of 1,899 lots or 1.98% from the previous week [4]. - 仓单数和基差: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 21,257 tons, a decrease of 221 tons or 1.03% from the previous week. The basis of the main contract is -1,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 405 yuan/ton or 34.76% from the previous week [4]. - 不锈钢期货价格: The latest values of Stainless Steel Main Contract, Stainless Steel Continuous One, Stainless Steel Continuous Two, and Stainless Steel Continuous Three are 12,620 yuan/ton, 12,620 yuan/ton, 12,575 yuan/ton, and 12,530 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 180 yuan/ton, 230 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton, and weekly growth rates of 1%, 1.86%, 1.78%, and 1.79% respectively [4]. - 持仓量和成交量: The latest position volume is 107,173 lots, a decrease of 78,734 lots or 42.35% from the previous week. The trading volume is 142,077 lots, a decrease of 67,010 lots or 32.05% from the previous week [4]. - 仓单数和基差: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 112,327 tons, a decrease of 1,576 tons or 1.38% from the previous week. The basis of the main contract is 435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 6.45% from the previous week [4]. - 镍现货价格: The latest values of Jinchuan Nickel, Imported Nickel, 1 Electrolytic Nickel, Nickel Beans, and Electrowon Nickel are 120,850 yuan/ton, 118,350 yuan/ton, 119,550 yuan/ton, 117,400 yuan/ton, and 118,050 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 600 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, 550 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, and 550 yuan/ton, and daily growth rates of 0.50%, 0.51%, 0.46%, 0.51%, and 0.47% respectively [4]. - 库存情况: Domestic social nickel inventories are 38,223 tons, a decrease of 1,160 tons from the previous period. LME nickel inventories are 204,294 tons, an increase of 78 tons from the previous period. Stainless steel social inventories are 992.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 8.5 thousand tons from the previous period. Nickel pig iron inventories are 34,610 tons, an increase of 3,148 tons from the previous period [4][6]. 一级镍供给和库存 - 产量情况: Not provided in the given content - 库存情况: Domestic social nickel inventories (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel inventories show seasonal trends [15]. 上游镍矿 - 价格情况: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) shows a historical trend [17]. - 库存情况: Chinese port nickel ore inventories by port show seasonal trends [17]. 镍铁 - 价格情况: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average price of Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) show historical trends [19]. - 产量情况: The monthly production of Chinese nickel iron and Indonesian nickel pig iron shows seasonal trends [20][22]. 下游硫酸镍 - 价格情况: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) show historical trends [24][26]. - 利润率情况: The profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China show seasonal trends [28]. - 产量和产能情况: The monthly production of nickel sulfate in China and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors show seasonal trends [30]. 不锈钢 - 产量情况: The monthly production of stainless steel shows seasonal trends [35]. - 库存情况: Stainless steel inventories show seasonal trends [33]. - 利润率情况: The profit margin of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils shows seasonal trends [35].
镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250630
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-06-30 02:37