碳酸锂期货日报-20250630

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate futures continued to rise, with the price rising for five consecutive days and showing an obvious bullish trend. Most industrial products rose during the day, and the market's bullish sentiment was strong. However, the spot price increase of lithium carbonate continued to lag behind, and the spot price remained lower than the futures price. The 07 - 09 contract shifted to a positive structure, but the exchange's warehouse receipts decreased again, indicating low enthusiasm for delivery. The increase in ore prices provided hedging opportunities for lithium salt plants purchasing spodumene. It is expected that the weekly production of lithium carbonate will continue to increase. As the lithium price rises, the downstream's purchasing enthusiasm has significantly decreased, while the upstream's selling enthusiasm has increased. In the short term, the futures price increase is mainly due to the rebound after the market's bullish sentiment improved. If the spot price fails to catch up with the futures price increase, the upside potential of the futures price is expected to be limited [12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures continued to rise, with a strong bullish market atmosphere. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 550 to 61,150, remaining lower than the futures price. The 07 - 09 contract became a positive structure, but the exchange's warehouse receipts decreased by 592 tons to 21,998 tons, showing low delivery enthusiasm. The increase in ore prices provided hedging opportunities for salt plants, and it is expected that the weekly production of lithium carbonate will continue to increase. As the price rises, the downstream's purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, while the upstream's selling enthusiasm has increased. The short - term futures price increase is mainly an oversold rebound, and if the spot price fails to keep up, the upside potential of the futures price is limited [12]. 2. Industry News - Argosy Mining Company recently signed a spot sales contract with Hong Kong CB Supply Chain Company to sell 60 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate produced by its Rincon lithium project. The contract uses the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price as the benchmark, indicating that Argosy has become an important supplier in the lithium market [13]. - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,279 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 534 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price ranged from 60,400 to 61,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 61,150 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 550 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate price ranged from 59,050 to 60,050 yuan/ton, with an average price of 59,550 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 550 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate market still has a supply - surplus pattern, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. The supply side has sufficient available goods, and the inventory pressure has not been effectively relieved. The recent price increase is mainly driven by external factors such as macro and market sentiment, rather than fundamental improvement. On the demand side, downstream cathode material enterprises maintain a cautious purchasing strategy, mainly for rigid demand, and there is no obvious willingness to replenish inventory, with a strong market wait - and - see sentiment. In this environment, downstream enterprises prefer to lock in procurement costs through long - term contracts [13][14].