建信期货铜期货日报-20250630

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Copper prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall. The main reasons are the sharp decline of the US dollar index and the high spread structure of the LME market. The report also mentions that the narrowing of the spread between the spot and futures prices in the domestic market, the opening of the export window, and the easing of the tight supply situation of copper mines in the second half of the year also affect the copper price [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper price broke through and rose. The main reasons were the decline of the US dollar index and the high spread structure of the LME market. The speculation that the Fed would cut interest rates earlier led to a sharp decline in the US dollar index. The LME0 - 3 back structure and the next - day spread expanded, and the LME inventory continued to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze in the market. The spread between the spot and futures prices in the domestic market also widened, and the export window opened. The long - term negotiation result of the mine end showed that the supply shortage of copper mines in the second half of the year was less severe than expected, which once narrowed the increase of copper prices, but the current tight spot market still supported the copper price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The copper concentrate mixing project of Zhongtong (Tangshan) Mineral Products Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation on June 25, marking the full smoothness of the bonded mixing business process [12]. - The negotiation result of TC/RC between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars per dry ton and 0.0 cents per pound [12]. - In July 2025, the total production plan of the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) was 29.6 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. Affected by the weakening demand for home appliances, the operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has continued to decline [12][13].