大越期货玻璃早报-20250630

Report Overview - The report focuses on the glass industry, analyzing its fundamentals, market conditions, and providing a short - term outlook [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With supply at a relatively low level and in the seasonal demand off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed. Glass factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Glass production profit is at a low level, industry cold repairs increase,开工率 and production decline to historical lows; deep - processing orders are weaker than in previous years, terminal demand is weak, and factory inventories continue to accumulate (bearish) [2] - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1056 yuan/ton, the FG2509 closing price is 1019 yuan/ton, with a basis of 37 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot (bullish) [2] - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight - boxes, a 0.96% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average (bearish) [2] - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward (bullish) [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase (bearish) [2] - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2] 2. Influence Factor Summary - Bullish factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4] - Bearish factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting raw - glass inventories [4] 3. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. It is the seasonal demand off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, and glass factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level [5] 4. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased by 0.30% to 1019 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 7.50% to 37 yuan/ton [6] 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Not elaborated in detail in the report 7. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75.15%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume is 156,800 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23] 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [27] 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight - boxes, a 0.96% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [42] 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the glass industry has seen fluctuations in production, consumption, and supply - demand differences. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the difference is 1.51 million tons [43]