大越期货尿素早报-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to show a volatile trend today. Although the international urea price is strong and agricultural demand has improved to some extent, the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Recently, the urea futures market has been volatile. International situation fluctuations have led to a tight urea supply, with international urea prices being strong, and the impact has partially spread to the domestic market. In terms of supply, the operating rate and daily production are at recent highs, and inventory has shown slight fluctuations. On the demand side, in industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has continued to decline, and the operating rate of melamine has also decreased. Agricultural demand expectations have turned weak again. The overall supply of urea still significantly exceeds demand, and the export policy has not been liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1880 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 166, with a premium - discount ratio of 8.8%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 980,000 tons (-218,000), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectations: The main contract of urea shows a volatile trend. The international urea price is strong, and agricultural demand has improved, but the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include strong international prices and a marginal improvement in domestic agricultural demand. Bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, as well as high - year - on - year inventory. The main logic lies in international supply and marginal changes in domestic demand, and the main risk point is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Quotes | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Quotes | The price of the spot delivery product is 1880 (-10), Shandong spot price is 1880 (-10), Henan spot price is 1900 (0), and FOB China price is 2547 [6]. | | Futures Quotes | The price of the 09 contract is 1717 (-7), UR01 is 1684 (2), UR05 is 1696 (5), and the basis of the UR09 contract is 163 (-3) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 500, UR comprehensive inventory is 980,000 tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 817,000 tons, and UR port inventory is 163,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]