PTA、MEG早报-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the cease - fire between Iran and Israel this week, oil prices quickly gave back the geopolitical premium and returned to a volatile state. The upstream cost support collapsed, and the PTA futures market followed suit. However, in terms of supply - demand structure, PTA itself did not accumulate inventory. It is expected that the PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate and adjust following the cost side in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the polyester load reduction in July [5]. - MEG: At the beginning of this week, the ethylene glycol port inventory will still show a certain decline. However, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign - owned vessels at the beginning of July, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The domestic and foreign supply will gradually recover, and the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall increase of around 200,000 tons. The on - site spot liquidity will continue to be released. In addition, the polyester sales have been weak recently, and the terminal load has declined. The subsequent industrial chain contradictions will gradually be transmitted upwards. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, there were transactions for mid - to - late July at 09 + 250 - 257, with the price negotiation range around 5,000 - 5,045. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 255. The 3.6 - million - ton unit of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load last week, and by Friday, the PTA load dropped to 77.7% [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 5,025, and the basis of the 09 contract is 247, with the futures price at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The net long position increased, which is bullish [6]. - MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market trading was weak. The domestic and foreign price centers of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The recent mainstream negotiation price for foreign vessels was around 506 - 511 US dollars/ton, and the domestic trading negotiation range was 4,323 - 4,370 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,340, and the basis of the 09 contract is 69, with the futures price at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons compared to the previous period, which is bullish [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position increased, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand situation and inventory changes of PTA over the years [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol [12]. - Price Data: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on June 26 and 27, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data of futures contracts [13]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 through charts, including factory inventory days and port inventory [41][43]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: It presents the operating rate data of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 through charts, reflecting the production status of the polyester industry chain [52][54][56][58]. - Profit Data: It includes the profit data of PTA processing, MEG production in different ways, and polyester fiber production from 2022 to 2025, helping to analyze the profitability of the industry [60][63][65]