大越期货天胶早报-20250630

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is neutral, with a spot price of 14,100 and a basis of 55 [4]. - Inventory conditions are mixed, with上期所库存周环比 decreasing and同比 decreasing, while Qingdao area inventory is increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental data: Supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is high; basis is 55 with a spot price of 14,100; inventory shows different trends in different regions; the price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat; the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [4]. - Basis: Neutral with a basis value of 55 and a spot price of 14,100 [4]. - Multiple and short factors and main risk points: Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant spot prices; bearish factors are increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6]. 2. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 27 [8]. 3. Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed little recently [17]. 4. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. 5. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 6. Basis - The basis turned positive on June 27 [35].