铁矿石早报（2025-6-30）-20250630

Report Overview - Report Date: June 30, 2025 - Report Subject: Iron Ore - Report Author: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 1. Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a high level of arrivals this month. The port inventory has increased, and there are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the supply side will maintain a relatively high level of arrivals this month, and the overall supply - demand is loose with an increase in port inventory. There are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder converted to the futures price is 743, with a basis of 26; the spot price of Qingdao Port Super Special powder converted to the futures price is 826, with a basis of 110. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 14480.23 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. Market Chart Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: High hot metal production, a decrease in port inventory, and import losses [5]. - Bearish Factors: An increase in later shipments and weak terminal demand [5].