大越期货生猪期货早报-20250630

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. Overall, the market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price is expected to return to a volatile pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price fluctuates weakly in the short term, with the futures following a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, pork demand weakens in the short term. The spot price of live pigs fluctuates weakly due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic pig - farming profit remains at a low level but still exists in the short term. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is relatively high in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of live - pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a weakly volatile pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live - pig spot prices [11]. - Bearish Factors: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh - meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of pigs both decrease. The market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price is expected to return to a volatile pattern [8]. - Base Difference: The national average spot price is 14,560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 555 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [8]. - Inventory: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, which is bullish [8]. - Market Trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - Expectation: After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of pigs both decrease. The pig price is expected to return to a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2509 contract of live pigs fluctuating around 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8].