大越期货菜粕早报-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 will fluctuate in the range of 2520 - 2580. It's affected by factors such as the low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, short - term peak season of spot demand, increased import of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it shows a slightly stronger volatile trend, but the upward space is limited [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term trend is influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and will return to range - bound fluctuations with the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 fluctuates in the range of 2520 - 2580. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the disk is neutral, the main positions are bullish, and in the short term, it will return to range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is still uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduced output in the EU and lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed is on the market in June, and the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading data: From June 18th to 27th, the average trading price of soybean meal decreased from 2999 to 2886, and the trading volume fluctuated. The average trading price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2620 to 2500, and the trading volume was relatively small. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated [14]. - Price summary: From June 18th to 27th, the rapeseed meal futures price and spot price both declined. The spot price in Fujian decreased from 2620 to 2500, and the spot discount remained at a relatively high level [16]. - Warehouse receipt data: From June 16th to 27th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 26177 to 21544, showing a continuous downward trend [17]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and will return to range - bound fluctuations with the influence of soybean meal [9].