农产品早报-20250630

Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: June 30, 2025 - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs, providing short - and long - term price trend forecasts and risk warnings for each product [3][4][5][9][13] 3. Summary by Product Corn/Starch - Price Data: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2260 (except for June 27 with no data), and the price in Weifang increased by 10. The corn basis decreased by 6, and the starch basis decreased by 15 [2] - Market Analysis: In the short term, the strong performance of corn spot prices will continue to support the price, but in the long term, there is a risk of price decline due to increased imports. For starch, the strong raw material price will support the product price in the short term, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. In the long term, the off - season consumption restricts price increase, and it is advisable to short the far - month contract after a small profit repair [3] Sugar - Price Data: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou and Nanning increased by 10, the basis increased by 8, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 310 [4] - Market Analysis: Internationally, due to the impact of the 2024 drought, the first month of Brazil's 25/26 sugar - making season had a decline in yield and sugar output per ton of sugarcane. However, the high sugar - making ratio in May led to market expectations of increased production, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. Brazil's decision to increase the ethanol blending ratio may increase ethanol demand. Domestically, the market follows the international trend [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 60, the import profit decreased by 32, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 53 [4][15] - Market Analysis: The rapid decline in cotton inventory drives up the price in the short term, but there is resistance from hedging orders. The downstream market has weak demand, and if demand deteriorates or there are macro - risks, the price may fall; otherwise, it will fluctuate at the current level [5] Eggs - Price Data: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the prices in major production areas remained stable, and the basis increased by 21 [9] - Market Analysis: Since late April, farmers' willingness to cull chickens has increased due to losses. The spot price rebounded slightly in mid - June, and farmers' culling sentiment slowed down. The high inventory may limit the height of the seasonal price rebound [9] Apples - Price Data: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8500, and the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month bases changed by 30, 13, and 29 respectively [12][13] - Market Analysis: In the new production season, there is an expectation of a slight reduction in production nationwide. The consumption is in the off - season, the inventory is at a five - year low, and the sales in major production areas have slowed down. The entry of seasonal fruits may affect the market share of apples [13] Pigs - Price Data: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the prices in major production areas increased, and the basis increased by 135 [13] - Market Analysis: In the short term, the spot price is strong due to supply contraction and other factors, but the downstream acceptance of price increases is limited in the off - season. In the medium term, price rebounds are not conducive to inventory reduction. The futures market has priced in the seasonal rebound expectation, and the key is the inventory reduction path [13]