Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the geopolitical risk premium related to the tense situation in the Middle East fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market has shifted its focus to OPEC+'s production policy and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were destocked in late June, with the destocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 583,600 barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period in history. The WTI fundamentals are positive. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the non-OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the upside potential of absolute prices is limited, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended for the price difference. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Iran's military stated that if aggression occurs again, Iran will launch a stronger counterattack [3] - OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production again in August, and Russia's attitude towards production increase has changed [4] - The US Energy Secretary evaded the question of "maximum pressure" on Iran and focused on reaching a peace agreement [4] - US President Trump said that if Iran can achieve peace, the sanctions on Iran will be lifted [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 20th, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 1.39%. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with the production of major refineries increasing and that of independent refineries decreasing. The sales-to-production ratios of gasoline and diesel in local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [5] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - As the geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East tension fades, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is now focused on OPEC+'s production policy and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were destocked in late June, with the destocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 583,600 barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period in history. The WTI fundamentals are positive. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the non-OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the upside potential of absolute prices is limited, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended for the price difference. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5][6]
原油成品油早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-06-30 05:14