永安期货甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250630

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For methanol, the high imports are starting to materialize, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [2]. - For plastics, the overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - For PP, the upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly, and the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2735 to 2820, with a daily increase of 60 on the 27th. The import profit increased from 210 to 267, and the futures MTO profit increased from -1350 to -1176 [2]. - Market Situation: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has started, and the futures price is undervalued. Iran has reduced its production, non - Iranian supply has increased, and the domestic supply has also increased. The market is in a bearish factor realization period [2]. Plastics - Price Data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850 on the 27th. The import profit remained at -77, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - Market Situation: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing [7]. PP - Price Data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6890 to 6700, and the export profit remained at -14. The two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - Market Situation: The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000, and the supply in June is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - Price Data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4850 to 4850 (with a 50 increase on the 25th). The export profit remained at 626, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased from -90 to -80 [10][11]. - Market Situation: The basis has strengthened, the downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices, and the mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11].