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《农产品》日报-20250630
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-30 05:41
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken in the short - term due to concerns about production recovery and a rapid slowdown in export growth. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to fall further to the 8150 - 8250 yuan range. - For soybeans, the easing of the Middle East situation reduces investors' risk appetite, but the decline in crude oil and refined oil inventories and the increase in refinery operating rates support CBOT soybeans. However, CBOT soybeans are under pressure, dragging down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, demand is weak, and factory soybean oil inventories are accumulating. [1] Meal - Affected by the decline in crude oil, CBOT soybeans have fallen recently. But there are signs of stabilization at around 1020 cents. The increase in the premium of Brazilian beans for August and September shipments boosts the Brazilian bean market. - Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is stable. The future supply is expected to be high, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The soybean meal market is in a short - term bottom - grinding adjustment, and support is expected to gradually strengthen. [2] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is still in a volatile structure. The enthusiasm of second - fattening has declined, and the slaughter procurement is slightly more difficult. - Although the current breeding profit is declining, self - breeding still has profit, and market capacity expansion is cautious. The market expects a possible market in July and August, but there is a risk of a decline in the 09 contract if the live inventory continues to shift backward. [3] Corn - The current supply is affected by traders' behavior. As the remaining grain decreases, traders are reluctant to sell, and the futures decline has little impact on the spot price, which is stable with a slight increase. - Downstream deep - processing enterprises have regional maintenance, and the stocking demand is average. The narrowing price difference between wheat and corn limits the increase in corn prices. In the long - term, the supply is tight, and consumption is increasing, supporting the upward movement of corn prices. [6] Sugar - Brazil's increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline supports the slight rebound of raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height, and raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. - The domestic market sentiment has improved, and prices are rebounding. With imports not yet increasing and the overall macro - environment being optimistic, the bullish sentiment is expected to continue. However, considering the future increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after the rebound. [8] Cotton - The short - term contradiction of tight old - crop inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, with开机 rates decreasing and finished product inventories accumulating. - The driving force for the continuous increase in cotton prices is insufficient, but the downward driving force is also weak. In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and there is a risk of short - term decline at high levels. [10] Eggs - The national egg supply is still sufficient, demand is generally average, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the national egg price will be stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then remain stable. [13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On June 27, the price in Jiangsu was 8290 yuan, up 0.61% from the previous day. The basis for Y2509 was 288 yuan, up 20.00%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 18882. - Palm Oil: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on June 27 was 8500 yuan, up 0.12%. The basis for P2509 was 124 yuan, down 4.62%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 470 to 470. - Rapeseed Oil: The price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil on June 27 was 9650 yuan, up 0.21%. The basis for 01509 was 148 yuan, up 24.32%. [1] Meal - Soybean Meal: The price in Jiangsu was 2860 yuan, down 1.40%. The price of M2509 was 2936 yuan, up 0.34%. The basis was - 76 yuan, down 65.79%. - Rapeseed Meal: The price in Jiangsu was 2430 yuan, unchanged. The price of RM2509 was 2550 yuan, up 0.35%. The basis was - 120 yuan, down 7.50%. - Soybeans: The price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan, unchanged. The price of the main soybean - one contract was 4140 yuan, down 0.24%. The basis was - 180 yuan, up 5.26%. [2] Live Pigs - Futures: The price of the main contract was 795, up 20.45%. The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13625 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of Live Pig 2509 was 14005 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. - Spot: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei all showed varying degrees of increase. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.75% to 142127 heads. The self - breeding profit increased by 159.02% to 50 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was - 132 yuan/head, up 29.49%. [3] Corn - Corn: The price of Corn 2509 was 2384 yuan, up 0.25%. The basis was - 4 yuan, down 300.00%. The 9 - 1 spread was 111 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. - Corn Starch: The price of Corn Starch 2509 was 2743 yuan, up 0.55%. The basis was - 23 yuan, down 187.50%. The 9 - 1 spread was 68 yuan, up 15.25%. [6] Sugar - Futures: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The price of Sugar 2509 was 5792 yuan, up 0.03%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 3.59% to 315131 lots. - Spot: The price in Nanning was 6090 yuan, up 0.16%. The basis in Nanning was 298 yuan, up 2.76%. The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%, and the cumulative sales volume was 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. [8] Cotton - Futures: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13760 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The price of Cotton 2601 was 13765 yuan, up 0.73%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan, down 109.09%. - Spot: The price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton was 15053 yuan, up 0.64%. The CC Index 3128B was 15109 yuan, up 0.59%. The industrial inventory was 93.01 million tons, down 1.2%. [10] Eggs - Futures: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3673 yuan/500KG, up 0.36%. The price of the Egg 07 contract was 2803 yuan, down 0.74%. - Spot: The egg production area price was 2.78 yuan/jin, unchanged. The basis was - 765 yuan/500KG, up 0.91%. The 9 - 7 spread was 870 yuan, up 4.07%. The breeding profit was - 33.26 yuan/feather, down 19.30%. [13]