《能源化工》日报-20250630

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Polyolefins - PP and PE show a supply contraction trend, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. However, there is still overall inventory pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the support from inventory reduction. For PP in the medium term, consider short - selling when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [2] Urea - The core driver of the urea market is the resonance of export policies and international events. The secondary drivers are short - term supply contraction and cost reduction. The market is expected to stabilize after a decline, and it is necessary to track factors such as Indian tender results, Chinese quota policy changes, and port shipping progress [4] Crude Oil - Recent oil prices have weakened due to the decline in risk premiums, and the market is weighing the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation, and the uncertainty of US tariff conflicts. The supply is expected to be loose, and the oil price is likely to fluctuate widely in the next week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7] Chlor - alkali - For caustic soda, the short - term decline driver is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. In the medium term, there may be new production capacity, and the price upside is limited. For PVC, the short - term contradiction is not intensified, but the over - supply problem is prominent in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [12] Methanol - The methanol market shows a differentiation between ports and the inland. The upside and downside of methanol prices are limited, and interval trading is recommended [29] Styrene - The pure benzene market is weak, and the styrene market is stable. There is pressure on the supply - demand margin of styrene, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene driven by raw material factors [34] Polyester - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. PTA is supported by raw materials but has limited self - driving force. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, and the price is expected to be weak. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand, and bottle - chip supply - demand may improve [39] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - Price Changes: L2601, PP2601, and PP2509 prices decreased, while L2509 increased slightly. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased [2] - Supply and Demand: PP and PE supply contracted, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations. The overall inventory decreased [2] Urea - Price and Spread: The prices of some futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The long - short positions of the top 20 traders and the long - short ratio also changed [4] - Supply and Demand: The daily and weekly production of urea decreased, and the plant and port inventories decreased. The production start - up rate decreased [4] Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different varieties and different months also changed [7] - Supply and Demand: OPEC+ may increase production in August, and the market is concerned about the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation and US tariff conflicts [7] Chlor - alkali - Price and Spread: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11] - Supply and Demand: The start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC production increased, and the downstream start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC products changed. The inventory of caustic soda and PVC decreased or increased slightly [11][12] Methanol - Price and Spread: The prices of methanol futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The basis and regional spreads also changed [29] - Supply and Demand: The methanol market is differentiated between ports and the inland. The port may face inventory pressure, while the inland may see reduced supply pressure in July [29] Styrene - Price and Spread: The prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures changed, and the basis and spread between contracts also changed [31][32] - Supply and Demand: The start - up rate of the styrene industry chain changed, and the inventory of some products increased [34] Polyester - Price and Spread: The prices of upstream raw materials, downstream polyester products, and related spreads in the polyester industry chain changed [39] - Supply and Demand: The start - up rate of the polyester industry chain changed, and the supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip is different [39]