广发期货《有色》日报-20250630

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Market expects the Fed to enter an interest - rate cut cycle in July or September, weakening the US dollar and boosting copper prices. The tight supply in other regions and the continuation of "strong reality" in the fundamentals support copper prices. Short - term copper prices may rebound, and the shortage trend is hard to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, with a reference range of 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina market maintains a slight surplus in the short - term, with prices expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term, with a reference range of 2750 - 3150. Aluminum prices are supported by the macro environment and low inventory but limited by the off - season, expected to be in high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 20000 - 20800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - alloy market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. The market will continue to suppress price increases, but the stable aluminum - aluminum alloy price spread and the strong electrolytic aluminum price provide support. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a reference range of 19200 - 20000 [4]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side is weakening. It is advisable to take a high - short approach, with a focus on the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes. The reference range for the main contract is 22500 - 23000 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market has a short - term price rebound due to improved sentiment. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated. The cost support has weakened, and the medium - term supply is loose. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with a reference range of 116000 - 124000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a short - term price rebound affected by news and sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The price is expected to operate weakly, with a reference range of 12300 - 13000 [11]. Tin - The tin supply recovery is slow, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at high levels based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term price rebound due to news and sentiment. The supply is sufficient with clear pressure, and the demand is hard to boost. The price is expected to operate within a range of 58000 - 64000, and attention should be paid to upstream production and downstream orders [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 80125 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 35.34%. The import profit and loss was - 2990 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12%, and imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 10.83% [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20890 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. The import profit and loss was - 1169 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamental Data: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.12% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose to 20100 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The monthly spread of some contracts changed [4]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66%. The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 6.74% [4]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22570 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. The import profit and loss was - 1307 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08%, and imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.13% [7]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 4.16% [9]. - Supply and Inventory: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% [9]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 12700 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed [11]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.28% [11]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin rose to 269000 yuan/ton, up 1.20%. The import profit and loss was - 14640.51 yuan/ton [12]. - Fundamental Data: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, up 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, down 2.37% [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 61150 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis was - 2190 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, down 2.34%. The total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].