原油周评：OPEC+增产消息再现，油价或维持弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices dropped significantly, with international oil prices falling 12% weekly, fully reversing the previous geopolitical risk premium. The market's focus may shift back to OPEC+ led production increases, which could lead to long - term expectations of a supply - side surplus and put pressure on oil prices. The increasing expectation of a fourth - quarter interest rate cut will relieve some macro - economic downward pressure but may not boost oil prices effectively in the short term. The cease - fire in the Israel - Iran conflict has eliminated the risk premium, and it's difficult for it to boost oil prices again. Overall, oil prices are likely to return to pre - conflict levels and remain volatile with limited chances of a significant rebound [18][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices rapidly reversed the previous risk premium due to the cooling of geopolitical factors, resulting in a significant decline. This week, the market may calm down and return to trading the logic of a supply - side surplus. Prices are unlikely to rebound significantly. It is recommended to focus on the range of 470 - 495 yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread trading, and cautiously short at high prices. Also, pay attention to the changes in the US labor market data in June, manufacturing performance, and subsequent OPEC+ production increase news [12]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices dropped significantly at the beginning of the week due to the end of the Israel - Iran conflict. The market quickly reversed a large amount of the previous risk premium, causing oil prices to plunge. Then, the trading logic returned to the judgment of crude oil fundamentals and macro - financial attributes. With the expectation of a looser supply - side in the long term, oil prices gradually declined. International oil prices fell 12% last week, returning to the level before the Middle East geopolitical conflict [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - aspects - Powell maintains a hawkish view: Fed Chairman Powell attended the semi - annual monetary policy hearings in the Senate and the House of Representatives last week, reiterating that he won't cut interest rates rashly before the economic data is clear. He emphasized that the current policy still "depends on data" and hasn't decided whether to cut rates in July. The data from June to August is crucial, and the impact of tariff increases on inflation needs to be observed. The uncertainty of US tariff policies may cause fluctuations in the market's expectation of a July rate cut [23]. - US economic data fluctuates: The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May slightly exceeded expectations, reaching 2.7%, the highest since February 2025. However, personal spending decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year. These two data indicate the pressure of tariff policies on economic growth. Although the economic data doesn't fully support the market's pricing of a rate cut, some Fed officials have publicly supported it, which may influence the market's expectations [26]. - Geopolitical situation cools down: Iran and Israel ended a 12 - day conflict and reached a cease - fire agreement last week. Although there were still attacks after the cease - fire news, the fighting has basically stopped. Trump said the cease - fire is progressing smoothly but didn't rule out the possibility of a resurgence of the conflict. He also hinted at adjusting sanctions on Iran. The geopolitical factor's impact on oil prices has basically cooled down [30]. 3.3.2 Supply - aspects - OPEC achieved production increase in May: OPEC's total production in May was 27,022 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 183 thousand barrels per day compared to April. OPEC+ total production was 41,230 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 180 thousand barrels per day compared to April [33]. - OPEC+ may increase production again: OPEC+ has three sets of production - cut measures. Two of them have been extended to the end of 2026, and the goal of this round of production increase is to withdraw the additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. So far, nearly 60% of the 2.2 million barrels per day production restoration target has been completed, which may lead to long - term concerns about a global oil supply surplus and put pressure on oil prices [34]. - Saudi Arabia's production increased: No specific increase data was provided, but it is mentioned that Saudi Arabia's production has increased [37]. - Iraq compensates for production cuts: No specific compensation data was provided [40]. - US production remains stable: No specific production data was provided, but it is mentioned that US production remains stable [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - aspects - Summer demand shows slight improvement: No specific improvement data was provided [45]. - Pay attention to this week's manufacturing performance: No specific performance data was provided [48]. - Refined oil production slows down slightly: No specific slow - down data was provided [53]. 3.3.4 Inventory - aspects - Crude oil inventory decreases and consumption recovers: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 4.277 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.183 million barrels and a previous value of - 10.133 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory for the same week was - 5.836 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.797 million barrels and a previous value of - 11.473 million barrels. This is the fifth consecutive week of decline, mainly due to the low net import of US crude oil and the increase in the refining level of downstream factories, which may support oil prices in summer [55]. - Refined oil inventory decreases and supports prices: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 2.075 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.381 million barrels and a previous value of 0.209 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was - 4.066 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.41 million barrels and a previous value of 0.514 million barrels. The significant decline in the inventory of the two major refined oils indicates the recovery of fuel consumption in North America. With the expectation of the subsequent consumption peak season, it's difficult for oil prices to decline further in summer [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and international oil prices fell 12% weekly, fully reversing the previous geopolitical risk premium. The market may focus on OPEC+ production increases, leading to long - term supply - side surplus expectations and putting pressure on oil prices. The increasing expectation of a fourth - quarter interest rate cut will relieve some macro - economic downward pressure but may not boost oil prices effectively in the short term. The cease - fire in the Israel - Iran conflict has eliminated the risk premium, and it's difficult for it to boost oil prices again. Overall, oil prices are likely to return to pre - conflict levels and remain volatile with limited chances of a significant rebound [18][65].