合成橡胶产业日报-20250630

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the geopolitical situation in the Middle East eases, the crude oil market weakens significantly, the butadiene market fluctuates slightly, and the cost - side support for cis - butadiene rubber is insufficient. The spot trading pressure persists, and there are still expectations of a slight increase in the inventory of production and trading enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates. The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,500 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 28,291, a decrease of 5,181. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 700 tons, with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai remain unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is at 67.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is at 569.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.28 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton; WTI crude oil is at 65.52 US dollars/barrel [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.75%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 27,450 tons, a decrease of 950 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 45.02%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 68.54%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,165 yuan/ton; the social inventory at the end of the week is 3.41 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory at the end of the week is 27,650 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader's inventory at the end of the week is 6,370 tons, a decrease of 450 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.64%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,182 million pieces, a decrease of 126 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415 million pieces, a decrease of 124 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 41.93 days, an increase of 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 48.15 days, an increase of 0.73 days [2]. Industry News - As of June 26, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.41 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 million tons and 1.34%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.32 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market is about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]. Key Points to Watch - No news today [2].