Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply remains ample with production decline and profit drop, and it's expected that supply will stay loose, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash starts to revert, and basis reversion trading may continue. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply slightly decreases with one more cold - repaired production line, and the industry profit keeps falling. The demand is expected to weaken further due to the poor real - estate situation. It is suggested to go long on dips in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main soda ash contract is 1181 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the closing price of the main glass contract is 1006 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 175 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The 9 - 1 contract spread of soda ash is - 13 yuan, down 17 yuan; that of glass is - 79 yuan, down 21 yuan. The basis of soda ash is 14 yuan, down 11 yuan; that of glass is 37 yuan, down 3 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main soda ash contract is 1,588,831 lots, an increase of 79,343 lots; that of the main glass contract is 1,470,350 lots, an increase of 30,678 lots. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 288,637 lots, a decrease of 65,695 lots; that in glass is - 322,568 lots, a decrease of 46,519 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 3,761 tons, an increase of 19 tons; those of glass are 877 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1,223 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; that of Central China heavy soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of Central China light soda ash is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,056 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of Central China glass sheets is 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 82.21%, down 4.25 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.68 million tons/year, an increase of 0.14 million tons/year; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, a decrease of 1 [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 176.69 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 69,216,000 weight boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative new - construction area of real estate is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative completion area of real estate is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters [2]. - The central bank plans to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land, and the real - estate market shows a stable trend. In the first five months, the total transaction area of first - and second - hand housing in Shanghai is 10.94 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 30%. The real - estate market continued to recover in Q1 2025, and the decline has stopped and stabilized [2]. Industry News - The land transfer fees of residential land in 300 cities increased by 24.5% year - on - year in H1 2025. In the 25th week of 2025, the new - house transactions in Shenzhen were 1,150 units, a week - on - week increase of 2%. Two residential - related land parcels in Guangzhou were sold at the reserve price of 2.496 billion yuan [2]. - In June, the number and area of second - hand housing online sign - ups in Guangzhou increased by 7.18% and 8.03% respectively week - on - week. A residential land parcel in Chengdu's Jinniu District was sold for 1.748 billion yuan. The land revenue in Chengdu in H1 increased by 100% year - on - year [2]. - Two residential land parcels in Nanjing's Xuanwu District were sold for about 1.2 billion yuan, and Greentown won a plot for 1.022 billion yuan. China Jinmao spent about 5.144 billion yuan to acquire three land parcels [2]. Macro - aspect - The third - batch funds for consumer goods trade - in will be allocated in July. The operating rate of domestic soda ash plants decreased this week, and the production of soda ash declined. The market supply is still ample, and the profit of domestic soda ash has decreased, with the profit of the ammonia - soda process turning negative [2].
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250630
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-30 10:06