瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250630

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the cost side playing a dominant role in prices. In the short - term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 4830 on the daily K - line [3][4]. - The current domestic PVC industry is in a period of intensive maintenance. Next week, the impact of shutdown devices will expand, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4889 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the trading volume is 792,725 lots, down 265,709 lots; the open interest is 926,073 lots, down 7,777 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 18,970 lots, down 30,768 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4965 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4817.31 yuan/ton, up 55.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4965 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4893.75 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 720 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region is 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north China region, it is 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northwest region, it is 2508 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.09%, down 0.53 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80.97%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 70.46%, down 3.35 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 36.17 tons, up 0.66 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23,183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,250,195,400 square meters, up 4704.49 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 191.5481 billion yuan, up 42.8168 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 13.28%, up 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.83%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.74%, up 2.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.74%, up 2.22 percentage points [3]. Industry News - On June 30, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou remained stable compared to last Friday, ranging from 4780 to 4860 yuan/ton. From June 21 to 27, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. As of June 26, the social inventory of PVC increased by 1.03% month - on - month to 575,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.06% [3].