瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - For corn, the good condition of US corn and the easing of trade relations between China and the US have led to concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast is almost exhausted, traders are reluctant to sell due to high costs, and processing enterprises mainly consume inventory. However, the substitution of wheat for corn in feed has reduced corn's feed demand. The corn futures price has recently declined from its high and is in a volatile state, with short - term trading recommended [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. Supported by reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, and industry inventory has been decreasing. Recently, affected by the decline in corn prices, starch prices have also weakened, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2733 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2378 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Corn futures positions (active contract) decreased by 3240 hands, and corn starch futures positions (active contract) decreased by 7492 hands [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch decreased by 922 hands, and for corn decreased by 36404 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn decreased by 366 hands, and that of corn starch increased by 948 hands [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 355 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 7.25 cents per bushel. CBOT corn total positions decreased by 57,509 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 23,326 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2432.35 yuan/ton, up 1.37 yuan/ton. The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in潍坊 is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The import CIF price of corn is 1899.84 yuan/ton, up 2.57 yuan/ton. The international freight of imported corn is unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn starch main contract is - 13 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 54.35 yuan/ton, up 7.37 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, up 1.82 million hectares; the predicted yield is 131 million tons, up 5 million tons. In Brazil, the sown area is 35.37 million hectares, and the yield is 22.6 million tons, up 0.3 million tons [2]. - In Argentina, the sown area is 7.5 million hectares, and the yield is 53 million tons, up 3 million tons. In China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, up 0.08 million hectares; the yield is 44.3 million tons, down 0.44 million tons [2]. - In Ukraine, the predicted yield of corn is 30.5 million tons, up 3.7 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports decreased by 0.2 million tons to 113.3 million tons; at northern ports decreased by 11 million tons to 371 million tons. Deep - processing corn inventories decreased by 2.5 million tons to 456.7 million tons [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventories decreased by 1.9 million tons to 130.9 million tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Hebei is - 47 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; in Jilin is - 86 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The sample feed corn inventory days decreased by 0.48 days to 32.59 days. The deep - processing corn consumption increased by 1.3 million tons to 118.92 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 46.18%, up 2.38 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.15%, down 0.47 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.61%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.67%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 10.25%, up 0.22 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, boosting the country's corn - ethanol industry [2]. - As of June 25, the harvest progress of 2024/25 Argentine corn is 55.3%, 5.7 percentage points higher than a week ago [2]. - As of the week of June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72% [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]