瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 30, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 825.0, down 1.08%, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1404.0, down 0.46% [2]. - For coking coal, the supply of raw materials is gradually improving, the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate is generally decreasing, the clean coal inventory starts to be destocked, the cumulative import growth rate is decreasing, and the total inventory is decreasing. After the safety production month in June, the market expects the coal mine supply in Shanxi to recover [2]. - For coke, the supply of raw materials is gradually improving, the molten iron output is running at a high level, and the profit of independent coking plants is in a loss state. The average loss per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country this period is 46 yuan/ton [2]. - Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - lines of both coking coal and coke are above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and both should be treated with a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 825.00 yuan/ton, down 22.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1404.00 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 742353.00 lots, down 13482.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 57138.00 lots, down 2054.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 29434.00 lots, up 676.00 lots; Net position of the top 20 coke contracts: - 3038.00 lots, down 274.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread: 36.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread: 38.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; Coke warehouse receipts: 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 740.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; Russian main coking coal forward spot: 115.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal: 1230.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal: 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal: 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke: 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main contract basis: 105.00 yuan/ton, up 22.50 yuan; J main contract basis: - 14.00 yuan/ton, up 17.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants: 321.28 million tons, down 5.08 million tons; Clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants: 231.87 million tons, down 5.52 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants: 59.10%, down 2.24 percentage points; Raw coal output: 40328.40 million tons, up 1397.80 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; Daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 185.00 thousand tons, down 4.50 thousand tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 495.12 million tons, down 28.85 million tons; Coke inventory at 18 ports: 251.89 million tons, down 4.32 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises: 808.98 million tons, up 13.19 million tons; Coke inventory of independent coking enterprises: 113.03 million tons, down 2.55 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills: 781.21 million tons, up 6.55 million tons; Coke inventory of 247 steel mills: 627.75 million tons, down 6.45 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises: 12.39 days, up 0.10 days; Available days of coke for 247 steel mills: 11.22 days, down 0.20 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 738.69 million tons, down 150.65 million tons; Coke and semi - coke exports: 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 0.00 million tons, down 3926.16 million tons; Coke output: 4237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 73.35%, down 0.22 percentage points; Tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants: - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.84%, unchanged; Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output: 8654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held the second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation [2]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. obtained 49% of the equity of Magang Co., Ltd. through equity transfer and capital increase [2]. - The Zhejiang International Commodity Exchange was officially unveiled in Zhoushan City, realizing a leap - forward expansion from a single oil and gas variety to more categories of commodities [2]. - Trump suddenly stopped the trade dialogue with Canada and said he would set new tariff rates for Canadian goods in the next week [2].