瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250630

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2370 - 2410 in the short - term [2]. - Due to more production from restored domestic methanol capacity than that from maintenance and production - cut capacity, the overall output has increased slightly. Affected by long - term centralized settlement in the northwest production area and the steady execution of previous orders, enterprise inventory decreased significantly last week. With normal unloading of foreign vessels and some domestic products directly delivered to downstream, and influenced by downstream factors on social warehouse pick - up, methanol port inventory increased significantly [2]. - The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased slightly last week. With the expected shutdown and maintenance of the second - phase of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin next week, the olefins industry's operating rate may continue to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2381 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 32 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest of methanol was 759,976 lots, down 24,522 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 90,502 lots, down 8,943 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 7,885, down 132 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2790 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1992.5 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between East China and Northwest China was 797.5 yuan/ton, down 32.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 409 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 287 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 350 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 262 euros/ton, unchanged; the price spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 63 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.75 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.45 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 49.6 tons, up 5.9 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 17.45 tons, up 2.51 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was 320.23 yuan/ton, up 131.65 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 341,600 tons, down 25,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 91.31%, up 2.66 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 48.95%, down 1.44 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 9.16%, up 0.5 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 95.35%, up 7.02 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 64.4%, up 0.69 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 87.41%, down 1.81 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 873 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 29.95%, up 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 25.53%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 20.01%, up 0.77 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 20.01%, up 0.91 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of June 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.16 tons, down 2.58 tons or 7.02% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 24.07 tons, down 3.31 tons or 12.08% from the previous period [2]. - As of June 25, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 67.05 tons, up 8.41 tons from the previous data. East China and South China ports both saw inventory increases [2]. - As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 87.96%, down 1.12% from the previous period [2].