2025-07-01 00:40Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook on gold and physical assets, predicting a sustained rise in interest rates and gold prices starting from August 2023 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The key drivers for the gold market include U.S. inflation and fiscal conditions, particularly under the Trump 2.0 policy, which is expected to lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an increase in gold prices [1][5][9]. - The report highlights that the U.S. trade deficit and current account deficit are worsening, indicating structural imbalances that could impact dollar assets negatively [1][5]. - The increasing wealth disparity in the U.S. is likely to trigger social changes, and a commitment to reindustrialization could lead to a global capital rebalancing, further boosting the prices of physical assets like gold [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections U.S. Fiscal Expansion and Debt Pressure - The report indicates that U.S. fiscal expansion could push the deficit rate above 7%, leading to increased debt pressure and a likelihood of resolving issues through inflation depreciation and debt monetization [1][8]. - Financial repression may be implemented to lower financing costs, which would further support gold prices [2][8]. Impact of Trump 2.0 Policy - The Trump 2.0 policy is expected to significantly impact the gold market by attempting to revive manufacturing and reduce trade deficits, which could lead to a depreciation of dollar assets [5][9]. Wealth Disparity and Social Change - The report discusses the historical context of wealth disparity in the U.S. and its potential to lead to significant social changes, emphasizing the need for a return to manufacturing as a bipartisan consensus [6][7]. Long-term Trends in Gold Market - The long-term trajectory of the gold market is closely tied to U.S. inflation and fiscal deficit levels, with a bullish outlook if these factors remain high [12][13]. Emerging Markets and Gold Holdings - Emerging markets, particularly China, have room to increase their gold holdings, which currently stand at about 6% of their foreign exchange reserves, compared to 20% for emerging markets on average [14].