汇丰：中国宏观追踪_国内消费前景愈发光明

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Domestic consumption in China is showing signs of improvement, particularly driven by extended sales periods and trade-in programs during shopping festivals [5][10] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations for Brent crude to stabilize around USD65 per barrel by Q4 2025 if de-escalation occurs [2][4] - The impact of oil price shocks is expected to have a mixed effect on different sectors, with a potential drag on real GDP growth and increases in CPI and PPI [4] Summary by Sections Oil Market - Approximately 18% of China's energy consumption is derived from crude oil, with about 70% of this being imported [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for China's oil imports, accounting for over 40% of its crude oil shipments [3] - A 10% increase in Brent crude oil prices could reduce real GDP growth by approximately 0.1 percentage points while increasing headline CPI and PPI by around 0.3 and 1.3 percentage points respectively over a year [4] Consumption Trends - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 saw a 15% year-on-year growth in gross merchandise value (GMV), a significant recovery from a 7% decline in 2024 [5] - Trade-in programs contributed approximately RMB380 billion in sales, representing 9% of monthly retail sales in May [5][10] - Service consumption is expected to grow, with events like the Jiangsu Urban Football League driving increased spending in culture and tourism [11] Fiscal Policy and Support - Fiscal spending has focused on improving livelihoods, with social security and education spending rising by 9.2% and 6.7% year-on-year respectively in the first five months of 2025 [13] - The government plans to allocate additional subsidies for trade-in programs, with a total of RMB138 billion earmarked for localities in the coming months [10] - The Lujiazui Forum highlighted China's commitment to financial reforms, including RMB internationalization and technological innovation [15] Real Estate and Land Sales - The property sector remains weak, with property investment down 12% year-on-year in May, affecting land sales revenue which decreased by 11.9% in the first five months [14][47] - New home sales in Tier-1 cities have also seen a year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [42][52] Economic Activity Indicators - Various economic indicators such as the operating rates in the steel and chemical sectors have shown stability, while coal consumption in major provinces has increased seasonally [16][25][26] - National box office revenues rose by 12%, reflecting a recovery in entertainment consumption [32]