花旗：美国经济_鸽派之夏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for an earlier cut in July if unemployment rises sharply [6][11][40]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data over the summer months to determine the timing of potential rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of cuts resuming in September [5][8]. - Consumer spending has shown significant slowdown, particularly in real services spending, which has implications for economic growth and inflation [10][12][19]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in June, with a possibility of reaching 4.5% if job market conditions worsen, which could prompt earlier rate cuts [11][23][40]. Economic Indicators - Services inflation has remained subdued, with core PCE inflation at 0.179% month-over-month, indicating a cooling inflation environment [9][30]. - Real personal spending has stagnated, with a notable decline in both goods and services spending observed in recent months [10][30]. - The housing sector is experiencing weakness, with new home sales declining by 13.7% month-over-month in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [15][18][30]. Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims have shown a slight decline, but continuing claims are rising, suggesting a loosening labor market [24][67]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June, indicating growing concerns among consumers regarding the labor market and economic conditions [19][30]. - Average hourly earnings are expected to slow to 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a weakening labor demand environment [38][39]. Manufacturing and Trade - ISM Manufacturing is expected to remain in contraction, while ISM Services is projected to rebound slightly, indicating modest growth in services activity [60][63]. - The trade balance is anticipated to widen to -$71.7 billion, driven by a drop in exports, which could weigh on GDP growth [57][58].