SIASUN(SZ:300024)2025-07-01 00:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for UBTECH Robotics is "Buy / High Risk" [8] Core Insights - UBTECH's humanoid robot business is currently behind schedule, but management is confident in meeting the 2025 shipment guidance of 300-500 units, with potential for exceeding this target due to multiple projects [1][2] - The efficiency of the humanoid robot Walker S1 is expected to improve from 40-50% of human efficiency to 80-90% by the end of 2025 through optimized motion control algorithms [1] - A new customer, a Chinese NEV OEM cooperating with Huawei, is anticipated to emerge in Q3 2025 [1][3] - Management believes that bipedal robots are more suitable for industrial applications compared to wheeled robots, although wheeled options may still be offered for specific long-range tasks [4] - The new version of the humanoid robot, Walker S2, is under calibration and is expected to debut in July or August 2025 [5] Financial Overview - The current share price is HK$83.95, with a target price set at HK$108.00, indicating an expected share price return of 28.6% [6] - The expected total return, including dividend yield, is also 28.6% [6] - The market capitalization of UBTECH Robotics is HK$37,087 million (approximately US$4,724 million) [6] Valuation - The target price of HK$108.00 is based on approximately 22x the estimated price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025, aligning with the average P/S of other companies in the humanoid robot supply chain [16]