摩根士丹利：半导体生产设备_2025 年 6 月技术月刊

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for Semiconductor Production Equipment is Attractive [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor production equipment market is expected to experience strong growth driven by demand for advanced packaging materials and AI-related technologies [12][34]. - Major companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which will positively impact the semiconductor equipment sector [8][21]. - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging technologies is projected to rise, creating opportunities for companies like Advantest and Disco [34][12]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The semiconductor production equipment market is anticipated to grow despite a slow recovery in the overall semiconductor market, with advanced packaging applications expected to outpace other segments [12][34]. - The WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) market is projected to see low-single digit negative growth in 2025 [16]. Company Ratings - Advantest (6857.T) is rated Overweight with a target price based on a P/E of 14.0x [49]. - Disco (6146.T) is rated Overweight with a target P/E of 25.1x [46]. - SCREEN Holdings (7735.T) is rated Overweight with a target P/E of 11.9x [54]. - Tokyo Electron (8035.T) is rated Equal-weight [113]. Demand Drivers - The increasing need for AI servers and advanced packaging materials is driving demand for semiconductor production equipment [8][12]. - Companies are expected to ramp up capital expenditures directed at HBM4 and advanced packaging technologies starting from the second half of 2025 [8][12]. Geopolitical Factors - The US-China trade tensions and export restrictions are influencing the semiconductor equipment market, particularly affecting sales to China [20][22]. - Domestic production of AI chips in China is expected to increase capital intensity, benefiting companies like Advantest and Tokyo Seimitsu [21].