摩根大通：台积电-先进封装最新动态–调整 CoWoS 预期并上调 WMCM 估算

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to TSMC with a price target of NT$1,275.0 by December 2025 [2][28]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to maintain strong structural growth drivers due to its near-monopoly position in AI accelerators and edge AI, supported by a robust process roadmap and industry-leading packaging technology [28]. - The report anticipates a significant ramp-up in TSMC's wafer-level multichip module (WMCM) capacity, particularly for high-end iPhone models, which could lead to substantial revenue growth [5][11]. - CoWoS (Chips-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity is projected to remain tight through the second half of 2025 but is expected to reach a more balanced situation by the second half of 2026 [3][4]. Summary by Sections CoWoS Capacity and Demand - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to grow significantly, reaching 102,000 wafers per month (wfpm) by the end of 2027, with a growth rate of 138% in 2025 [3]. - NVIDIA's CoWoS demand is projected to grow by 25% in 2026, reaching 538,000 units, driven by the migration to the Rubin platform [4][9]. - Overall CoWoS consumption is forecasted to increase from 679,000 wafers in 2025 to 1,132,000 wafers in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32% [9]. WMCM Capacity and Adoption - WMCM capacity is expected to reach 27,000 wfpm by the end of 2026 and ramp up to 40,000 wfpm by the end of 2027, driven by Apple’s adoption in high-end iPhone models [5][11]. - If all iPhones were to migrate to WMCM long-term, this would require approximately 90,000 wfpm of WMCM capacity, indicating a significant expansion plan [5]. Customer Demand and Projections - Broadcom is expected to see steady growth in CoWoS consumption, particularly for Google TPUs, while new customers like Meta are anticipated to ramp up in 2026 [4]. - AMD's CoWoS forecasts remain muted for 2025 and 2026, with potential growth expected in the MI450 series in late 2026 and beyond [4]. - The report highlights that the CoWoS ecosystem is maturing, with more non-AI processors beginning to adopt CoWoS packaging, indicating broader market adoption [4]. Future Outlook - TSMC's structural growth is expected to be supported by price hikes on leading-edge nodes and a strong ramp-up of N2 technology in 2026 [28]. - The report suggests that TSMC will likely raise its FY25 USD revenue guidance, alleviating concerns regarding gross margin impacts from overseas expansion and currency fluctuations [28].