建信期货油脂日报-20250701

Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic three major oils are dragged down by international oil prices due to the mitigation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August. The decline in the month-on-month growth of Malaysia's export data from June 1 - 30 is negative for palm oil prices. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, oil inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse spreads being the main trend. Attention should be paid to the upcoming quarterly grain inventory report and crop planting area report [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Price Quotes: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: first - grade soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509+220, October - January Y2601 + 280. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 240 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7] - Market Analysis: The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic oils are affected by international oil prices. The mitigation of Middle East geopolitical risks and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August lead to a decline. Malaysia's export data decline in month - on - month growth is negative for palm oil. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable, with increasing inventories and pressured basis during the consumption off - season. The price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, and reverse spreads are the main trend. Attention should be paid to relevant reports [7] 3.2 Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil Policy: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in July, reducing the export tax to 8.5% at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [8] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.25% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month - on - month [8] - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase from May. According to AmSpec, the exports in June were 1,286,461 tons, a 4.5% increase from May [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][20][25][26]