焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-1）-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: Environmental inspections have a phased impact on coking coal supply. With downstream restocking demand, coal mine shipments have improved, and prices of some coal types have stabilized. Some high - quality and scarce resources have rebounded slightly. The terminal hot metal production continues to rise, and demand support is relatively stable. Steel mills' profitability has improved, with some restocking behavior, but overall they purchase on - demand. It is expected that coking coal prices may be weak in the short term [2]. - Coke: As the price of coking coal stabilizes and rebounds, coke enterprises' cost pressure increases, and some have cut production due to narrowed profit margins. Market sentiment has improved, and downstream steel mills and traders' purchasing enthusiasm has increased. Coke shipments are relatively smooth, and inventory pressure has eased. With steel mills' production enthusiasm high, restocking demand has slightly increased, and speculative trading has increased. With cost support from coking coal, it is expected that coke prices may remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - Coking Coal: On June 30 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are detailed, with some prices showing increases such as the main coking coal K4 at Rizhao Port increasing by 15, and the fat coal Elga at Caofeidian Port increasing by 15 [10]. 3.2 Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - Steel Mills' Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. 3.3 Production - related - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [35]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39]. 3.4 Factors Affecting Prices - Coking Coal: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower purchasing of raw coal by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - Coke: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn restocking demand [8].