大越期货纯碱早报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, limited improvement in terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance has started sporadically, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and soda ash factory inventory has declined but is still at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,181 yuan/ton, the basis is 29 yuan, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7669 million tons, an increase of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Soda Ash - Bullish Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry's output at a historical high; the cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,196 yuan/ton | 1,223 yuan/ton | 27 yuan | | Current Value | 1,181 yuan/ton | 1,210 yuan/ton | 29 yuan | | Change Rate | - 1.25% | - 1.06% | 7.41% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the heavy - alkali combined - alkali method in East China is - 42 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy - alkali ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 88.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.21%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 716,800 tons, including 392,100 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with the output at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production - launch of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 94.39% [24]. - Float Glass: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.15% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [30]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7669 million tons, including 961,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].