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大越期货沪铜早报-20250701
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-01 02:18

Report's Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with copper prices expected to mainly fluctuate. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is neutral, the inventory situation is neutral, the disk is bullish, the main positions are bearish, and there are uncertainties such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 79,935, with a basis of 65, showing a premium over futures [2]. - Inventory: On June 30, copper inventories decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 19,264 tons to 81,550 tons compared to last week [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising [2]. - Main Positions: The main net positions are short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, uncertainties in US trade tariffs, and geopolitical disturbances, copper prices will mainly fluctuate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Logic: There are domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Spot - No specific data analysis provided, only the format of spot price, inventory type, and quantity is given [6]. Exchange Inventory - No specific analysis provided, only the topic is mentioned [12]. Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [14]. Processing Fees - Processing fees are falling [16]. CFTC - No specific content provided, only the topic is mentioned [18]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].