建信期货集运指数日报-20250701

Report Information - Report Title: "Industry - Container Shipping Index Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - The spot price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. The 08 contract in the futures market is currently below 1800 points and lower than the 06 contract, potentially indicating that the market is skipping the peak - season price increase and expecting low prices after the August peak. Considering the strong export demand in Europe, stable shipping capacity supply, and stable quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, while the 10 - month traditional off - season provides opportunities for short - selling and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: At the end of June, the price increase was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk's mid - July quote was $2958, and most other shipping companies' quotes were in the $3300 - $3600 range, with a median of around $3400 [8] - Futures Market: The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract, implying that the market may skip the peak - season price increase and expect low prices after the August peak. The 08 contract may be undervalued, and there are opportunities for short - selling in October and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8] 2. Industry News - Geopolitical News: Iran launched a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose [9] - Shipping Market News: From June 23 - 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different trends in long - haul routes. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on June 27 was 1861.51 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous period. European routes' prices rose, Mediterranean routes' prices fell slightly, and North American routes' prices continued to decline [9][10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The SCFIS European route index increased by 9.6% from June 23 to June 30, while the US West route index decreased by 22.3% [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes: Provided trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European line futures main and sub - main contracts, global container shipping capacity, etc. [13][17]