大越期货天胶早报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with a neutral view on supply, inventory, and other aspects; the base - point is neutral; the inventory shows different trends in different regions; the market is bullish on the disk, bearish on the main position, and short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [6]. Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is starting to increase [6]. - Spot Price: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on June 30, and the US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [10]. - Inventory: The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao region's inventory has also changed little recently. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao region's inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [16][19]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, but tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [25][31][34]. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [8]. - Likely to Fall: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8]. Basis - The spot price is 13,950, and the basis is - 35, showing a neutral state. The basis turned negative on June 30 [6][37].