大越期货沥青期货早报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - From the supply - side, in June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. Refineries have increased production, increasing supply pressure, and this is expected to continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Overall, the fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the market is neutral, and the main positions are bullish. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3,529 - 3,599 [8][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: The planned production in June 2025 increased, and the capacity utilization rate and production of sample enterprises increased this week, while the estimated maintenance volume decreased, increasing supply pressure [8]. - Demand - side: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [8]. - Cost - side: The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference with delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - Overall judgment: Fundamentals are bearish, basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the market is neutral, main positions are bullish. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract in the 3,529 - 3,599 range [8][10][11]. - Likely factors: Bullish factor is that the crude oil cost is relatively high, providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - Main logic: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various contracts, inventories,开工率, production, and profits [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis trend: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [20][21]. - Spread analysis: - Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts such as the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt [25]. - Compares the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, as well as the cracking spread of crude oil and the price - to - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [27][30][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Displays the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [37][38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [40][43]. - Supply - side analysis: - Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production (weekly and monthly), price of Ma Rui crude oil and monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and estimated maintenance loss [46][48][51]. - Inventory analysis: - Includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory [66][70][73]. - Import and export situation: Analyzes the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - Demand - side analysis: - Analyzes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率 (by type and use), and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to June 2025 [107][108].